Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
