Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
